A poll taken of St. Louis County voters this month shows County Assessor Jake Zimmerman with a nine point lead over state Senator Brian Williams (D-University City) in the Democratic primary race for county executive—a shock in a race where Williams has been perceived as the frontrunner.
The poll was taken in the days just before the start of early voting, which began last week Tuesday. It showed 28 percent of voters favoring Zimmerman, 19 percent backing Williams and 10 percent preferring state Senator Angela Mosley (D-Florissant). When only tallying voters most likely to actually cast ballots, those numbers shift slightly more towards Zimmerman’s favor, with him getting 33 percent and Wiliams pulling in 20 percent.
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The poll was commissioned by Zimmerman’s campaign, which paid the polling firm Insight LLC $4,000 in May. It surveyed 435 likely voters and has a margin of error of 4.7 percent.
“This polling shows that Jake Zimmerman has carved out a clear path to victory in the primary election,” a memo attached to the polling data concludes. “With a message that resonates across key demographic blocs Zimmerman is in the driver’s seat to capture the nomination.”
The Williams campaign isn’t buying it.
“Our polling from two weeks ago clearly shows Brian Williams leading the race, a trend that directly aligns with the exact moment Mr. Zimmerman shifted exclusively to negative attacks,” says Ed Rhode, the Williams campaign spokesman. “Voters are sending a clear message that they prefer a positive vision for St. Louis county over mudslinging and distortion.”
Those negative attacks have included mailers claiming that Williams is “funded by MAGA.”
It’s worth noting that the data circulating from the shock poll doesn’t detail the demographic information of the county residents surveyed or if its top line results were weighted to match the demographics of the St. Louis County electorate. Also, $4,000 is relatively cheap for a poll of the largest county in the state.
Asked about the poll, Zimmerman tells SLM, “Forgive me. I have to give you the most hackneyed, cliched quote in politics. The only poll that matters is the one that happens on August 4.” However, he adds, “We’re not taking anything for granted.”
Williams announced his bid for county executive in August, and at the time was planning to run against incumbent Sam Page. But then in December Page announced he would not be seeking reelection. The following month, Zimmerman jumped in to challenge Williams.
Zimmerman’s campaign seemingly got a boost in March when Mosley entered the fray. The scuttle around her bid, which she announced on the last day of filing, was that she was interested primarily in siphoning votes away from Williams. Prior to her getting in the race, she had made pro-Zimmerman posts on social media; since entering, she’s failed to make herself available to either the St. Louis Post-Dispatch for its endorsement interviews or SLM and Nine PBS for its Citizens’ Agenda collaboration. Her campaign doesn’t appear to have a website. All this suggests she may not be in it to win it.
The winner of the Democratic primary on August 4 will take on Republican County Councilman Dennis Hancock.
