Cary Fowler has been compared to the Biblical figure Noah, and he admits the analogy makes sense. The Memphis native is known as the father of the so-called Doomsday Vault, which houses the seeds of more than one million crop varieties in a bunker on a remote Norwegian island in order to preserve crop diversity. In that, it’s a bit like Noah’s ark. And like Noah, Fowler is preparing for the worst, even as many people insist everything is just fine.
In a bracing talk at the Donald Danforth Plant Science Center Wednesday, Fowler, who served as the U.S. special envoy for global food security from 2022 to 2025, warned about the headwinds facing the world on the issue. In his telling, 3 billion people on Earth cannot afford a nutritious diet, and 150 million children five years and under are physically and cognitively stunted from malnutrition.
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And he doesn’t see that changing in the near future.
“The preponderance of scientific evidence is that we are not on track to meet either food demand or food need by 2050,” he said. “In fact, we are far, far short of that goal.” For all the work scientists are doing to increase crop yields, Fowler notes that aquifers are being depleted before they can be replenished, that rising temperatures put stress on fields, that food insecurity causes conflicts, and conflicts then cause more food insecurity. The U.S. government pulling back on its global commitments also has a ripple effect on other nations being willing to give.
On the Noah comparison, Fowler says he understands why so many people insist that the world simply could never flood. “I think that we live in a short-term world, and we’re hardwired to think about immediate threats,” he says. “We typically don’t think long term, and we also don’t think about the combination of challenges. And that’s what actually has really scared me, that those things come on top of each other.”
But Fowler still sees cause for hope. Agricultural innovation can have a massive impact, if adopted widely. “We have technologies that I couldn’t dream of 20 or 30 years ago, and we’re doing things I couldn’t imagine,” he says.
As just one example: American farms these days often have tractors and combines that are GPS-linked and can show soil conditions on a detailed, inch-by-inch basis. “In Africa, it’s kilometer by kilometer-based, and no farm has kilometers, so you’re dealing with a small holder that has two acres, and they don’t know the kind of soil they’ve got, so they don’t know what the mineral deficiencies are,” Fowler said. “And guess what? The government doesn’t know either. So the government can’t make rational decisions about where to promote agriculture and what crops to promote and where to give subsidies and what kind of fertilizer to supply to the farmers.” Implement American technology on African farms, and you could dramatically increase yield.
Fowler also praised the work being done at the Danforth Center, which is currently focused on crops such as cassava, cowpeas, and teff.
Said Fowler, “There’s some of you that maybe have never heard of any of those crops, but they’re really important crops. And why would the Danforth Center choose those crops? Great question. They’re African crops. I was so impressed by that choice, because that’s really where the bang for the buck is. I mean, if I wanted to place my bets on three crops that would be towards the top of the list in terms of real impact for food security and nutrition, those are the crops. And so to have a center here in St. Louis making that commitment long term, that’s what Noah would be doing.”
Fowler noted that due to the U.S. government’s unwillingness to fund the programs it used to fund, and many philanthropists overwhelmed by the needs before them, the answers to the world’s food insecurity issues may lie in for-profit companies. He specifically cited Bayer, and its St. Louis-based subsidiary Monsanto, as a company that has done great work with adaptive crops and soils in Africa.
“Why don’t we start talking about how we can, from the get-go, bring in the private sector, create an enabling environment so the private sector isn’t scared to come in and they can recoup their investment and make a big business out of it, and why can’t we put all those at those elements together?” Said Fowler, “I think that’s where the future lies.”
Hear from Danforth Plant Science Center’s new president on The 314 Podcast.
