Predicting the outcome of an election by looking at political campaign contributions is akin to the Ancient Greek tradition of predicting the future by asking the high priestess Pythia at Delphi to look at the entrails of an owl. Certain conclusions might be drawn, but even the Oracle at Delphi gave cryptic answers. (Legend also has it that Pythia would provide another answer if more gold were offered, perhaps making her the first political consultant.)
No one resembling Pericles is running for mayor, though the contributions are coming in for the mayoral hopefuls, who are on the ballot for the March 7 primary election.
With seven candidates in the hunt now—and maybe one or two more on the horizon—cash might not be king. (Case in point: Hillary Clinton, who outspent President-elect Donald Trump at an almost 2-to-1 ratio.) Yet without it, the odds of being a pawn increase. Insiders say about $500,000 is needed for an adequate campaign, with much of that spent on media and direct mail pieces to targeted voters. Based on those metrics, Ald. Lyda Krewson (D–28th) has almost achieved campaign financial legitimacy, with Aldermanic President Lewis Reed and City Treasurer Tishaura Jones close behind.
Campaign finance reports are filed quarterly, with the most recent filing occurring in late October. In that report, Krewson had $403,689 listed as “ending money on hand.” Reed listed $226,760, Jones had a shade more than $195,000, and Ald. Jeffrey Boyd (D–22nd) had $47,852. Ald. Antonio French (D-20th) reported just $32.64. Inveterate mayoral candidate Jimmie Matthews is not on record with the Missouri Ethics Commission as a candidate, though he is with the city Board of Election Commissioners. Bill Haas has filed with the Missouri Ethics Commission, though he has not submitted financial information.
In contrast to those figures, Mayor Francis Slay had $1.5 million in his 2013 fund; even now, with a few months left as mayor, he has $860,303 left in his campaign fund—nearly as much as all of the mayoral candidates reported in late October.
Slay has made recent donations to other campaigns, including $2,500 to both Donna Barringer, the 16th Ward alderwoman who's running for state representative in the 82nd District, and Bruce Franks, who won the litigated contest for state representative in the 78th District. As the mayoral race heats up, Slay could donate to a candidate.
The mayoral campaign for Krewson has already spent $61,000 on one political consulting firm, Show Me Victories, which has ties to Democratic political operative Mike Kelley and Ed Rhode, a former press secretary to Mayor Francis Slay. Jeff Rainford, Slay's former chief of staff, donated $500 to Krewson’s campaign.
French does not express concern about his campaign coffers lagging behind the other candidates. He has 138,000 followers on Twitter (which, as Trump has demonstrated, does not carry the same heavy price tag as mainstream ads and direct mail), though only a small portion of his Twitter followers likely live in the city and can vote.
“We’re executing our plan, raising money every day, but more importantly talking to voters talking to voters about real issues,” French said when asked about his campaign coffers. “It costs a lot less to market a candidate with a real record accomplishment than it does to try to invent a record for an establishment candidate with little to show for all their years with a title.”
Jones received a $25,000 donation from Dr. Donald Suggs, owner and publisher of The St. Louis American, the local weekly geared to an African-American readership. With Virvus Jones, the city treasurer’s father and former city comptroller, having been a longtime contributor to the American, it might surprise no one that Suggs would support the city treasurer; whether that support morphs into the newspaper’s endorsement remains to be seen.
How Much Does Money Matter?
Money and politics have been forever intertwined, with debate over campaign finance limits being the latest battleground. The suspicion that large donations influence an elected official’s action is just part of the puzzle.
Wally Siewert, director of the Center for Ethics in Public Life at the University of Missouri–St. Louis, studies the ethical implications of money in politics. “Unfortunately, the truth about ethics is often in the brain,” says Siewert. “Did ‘elected A’ vote for Bill X because she agreed with it or because she got a contribution from the that industry it would seem to help? We will never know in most cases.”
Siewert believes that before constituents become unduly suspicious about campaign donations, some points need to be remembered. “Politics requires money—there is no such thing as a campaign without money,” he says. “The second important point is that politicians primarily get their money from people who already agree with their positions. This can harden their positions, but it does not tend to change them.”
Campaign contributions don’t usually “buy” a candidate, though Siewert says it can lead to increased access. “The special interest gets a moment to sit down with the candidate and frame the issues important to them from their own perspective, with no one else there to challenge their facts, assumptions, and speculations," he says. "This is something the other side did not get to do."
Another factor is that the “exorbitant cost” of campaigns can lock candidates in a fundraising mode. Sometimes, candidates in the hunt for money neglect other necessary campaign chores and spend more time and energy working the phones and holding fundraisers instead of focusing on fundamental campaign work.
Finally, each candidate must decide how to move forward. “It is up to them to figure out how to draw the line between political support and political influence,” Siewert says. "No laws or regulations—no matter how detailed and well-intentioned—can do that for them. How they make their decisions in the public sphere and how this relates to their fundraising realities is up to them.
“Money, in this case, like so many others, is a necessary tool,” says Siewert, “one whose effects are determine not by its own nature, but by those wielding it.”
