6 St. Louisans on what the presidential election could mean for the region

With the presidential election just one week away, the question on everyone’s lips is, of course, some variation of Who do you think is going to win?

Instead of parsing early voting data or reading the tea leaves of betting markets to try to answer that question, we decided to ask a handful of area politicos and political watchers a different question: How will a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris presidency affect the St. Louis region? It’s an important question that can be easy to lose sight of, given how thoroughly uncompetitive our state is at the national level. 

But just because the candidates aren’t campaigning here doesn’t mean whoever wins won’t have an impact here. Read on for six takes on that impact coming from left, right, and center. We stressed to the interviewees that they could opine on a future Trump or Harris administration, and their forecast could be either positive or negative. Their responses have been very lightly edited for brevity. 

“If Trump wins the election, it will mean that Trump will work with right-wing politicians nationwide, including Missouri, to push his right-wing agenda even further. This will mean he will make every attempt to dismantle/cut social welfare programs as much as feasible. We should also expect Missouri to cut civil service jobs to limit the impact of government, and to promote business interests at the expense of Missouri citizens. Focus will be on cutting regulations that allow businesses to maximize profits at the expense of environmental concerns and worker safety. Educational excellence will be compromised by terminating educational programs Republicans are targeting (diversity, black and women studies, and other programs Republicans regard as woke).” —Ken Warren, Ph.D., professor emeritus, Department of Political Science, Saint Louis University

“If Trump wins, what happens to St. Louis would depend on the willingness of the entrenched Democratic leadership to work with state and federal leaders even if it possibly hands those people a win. In my personal and professional opinion, I’m not confident that the majority of elected officials in the city of St. Louis and St. Louis County would be willing to give Republicans any type of win in working with Donald Trump or any other elected federal official. In comparison to similar regions around the country, we’ll continue to stagnate in economic growth and development, which will have an effect on St. Louis small business owners and wage earners. The true winner in the region with a Trump victory will be St. Charles County. Especially with the pending election of Dr. Bob Onder to Congress, coupled with Josh Hawley and Eric Schmitt, St. Charles County will grow in ways and shapes and forms that we never even imagined.” —Paul Berry III, former Republican candidate for lieutenant governor 

“For the St. Louis region in particular, a Trump presidency has the potential to help solve some of our more pressing issues. A return to the first Trump administration’s vigorous approach to combating violent crime, using federal resources aggressively against street gangs, drug cartels, and violent criminals, would mean safer streets, particularly in our at-risk urban areas.  And a reinvigoration of federal policies intended to support school choice measures could meaningfully benefit families seeking to get their children out of failing public schools, like those in the St. Louis Public School district.” —Will Scharf, former federal prosecutor, recent attorney for Donald Trump, and previous candidate in the Republican primary for Missouri attorney general

“If Trump is the next president, it would be detrimental to the region’s Black, Hispanic, Asian, and immigrant populations, which are essential to our growth. Trump would stifle access to affordable health care, education, labor, and urban development. A Trump presidency would minimize accountability with law enforcement in the region and promote distrust in law enforcement and the courts.” —Jerryl Christmas, defense attorney, former assistant circuit attorney, and previous candidate for St. Louis circuit attorney

“Even if Missourians pass a state constitutional right to reproductive healthcare under Amendment 3 this November, those protections will be in jeopardy under a Trump administration. As he proudly did in his first administration, Trump will stack the federal courts with judges that are hostile to reproductive healthcare. Trump will also continue to work through the executive branch to attack reproductive healthcare rights on many levels, including eliminating access to medication abortion in all states. These actions could override the will of voters in Missouri and in other states. In contrast, a Harris administration will respect the will of Missouri voters (and other states that vote to protect reproductive healthcare) and work to codify a national right to reproductive healthcare.” —Dana Sandweiss, president of board of directors of the Access MO political action committee, which advocates for abortion rights.

“I honestly don’t know. The concerns of voters I’ve spoken to around the region in the past two years have been pretty stable since the midterms, and reflect the same partisan split as the rest of the country: Republicans tend to be more worried about inflation and immigration, Democrats more about abortion and democracy. I expect the current downward trend in inflation rates to be insensitive to who is president; states are going to legislate abortion on their own (approximately zero chance Congress “codifies Roe” or passes a federal limit); border apprehensions are back down to Trump-era figures as of September. As for the democracy question, our region is about to become ground zero for fights over the vote totals in swing states like Michigan and Wisconsin, so say a prayer for the local election officials trying to hold the line.” —Kathy Gilsinan, contributing writer for Politico Magazine based in St. Louis.