A closer look at the key Missouri primary races

It wasn’t long ago that Missouri was a bellwether state, but because of red-blue sorting in the Show-Me State, there won’t be much uncertainty about the general election results come November. Nearly all of Missouri’s most consequential races will likely be decided before then, in the August 6 primary elections. Ken Warren, a Saint Louis University political science professor and associate director of the SLU/YouGov Poll, points out some competitive races worth watching, even if November’s statewide election ends up being anticlimactic.

Missouri 1st Congressional District

Cori Bush / Wesley Bell

Both Bell, the prosecuting attorney for St. Louis County, and Bush, who’s bidding for a third term in Congress, have a history as activists. Ferguson’s unrest in 2014 was a launching point for both of their political careers. Now, the two will go head-to-head in what will be one of the most-watched races of the primary season. “I always tell people to bet on the incumbent,” Warren says. “But Cori Bush is a very unusual candidate.” More than 90 percent of congressional incumbents typically keep their seats, Warren says, but Bell’s popularity and visibility will likely make it a competitive race. The congresswoman’s staunch support for Palestine is a key platform difference from Bell, who dropped his campaign against Republican Sen. Josh Hawley to challenge Bush weeks after the attacks on Israel last October. Warren says Bell has the support of some right-leaning Missourians, as well as the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, a pro-Israel political lobbying organization. Bush remains under investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice for allegedly misusing campaign funds to pay her bodyguard-turned-husband.

Missouri Republican Gubernatorial Primary

Jay Ashcroft / Mike Kehoe / Bill Eigel

This race boils down to the Ashcroft name against everyone else. Jay Ashcroft, son of former U.S. Attorney General John Ashcroft, is a political legacy and current Missouri secretary of state. Although Ashcroft and his opponents, including Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe, State Sen. Bill Eigel, and others share similar stances on election integrity and pro-life causes, pedigree is expected to play a large role here. “The Ashcroft name is legendary in Missouri politics,” Warren says. Kehoe, who has the fundraising advantage at press time, is endorsed by such organizations as the Missouri Fraternal Order of Police and the Missouri Chamber of Commerce. Eigel from Weldon Spring, styles himself as a challenger from the right.

Missouri Republican Secretary of State

Mike Carter / Mary Elizabeth Coleman / Jamie Corley / Valentina Gomez / Denny Hoskins / Dean Plocher / Shane Schoeller / Adam Schwadron

This race appears to be wide open, Warren says. That perception is partly because there simply aren’t any polls to measure it. “These are all viable candidates with decent credentials and some decent money,” Warren says. “They’re all well-funded, and it’s difficult to figure out who would win this. That is unusual. There’s not an obvious standout.” Most of these candidates serve in the Missouri House or Senate, which means they come with voting records and baggage. Plocher made headlines this year as the subject of a House Ethics Committee investigation into whether he attempted to circumvent the standard bidding process to force through a government contract in exchange for a potential campaign donation. (The case was dismissed.) Coleman is a fierce advocate for pro-life causes. Corley, who has a history of supporting pro-choice efforts, recently received backing from Build-A-Bear founder Maxine Clark and Square co-founder Jim McKelvey.