Ask George: Is Ballpark Village to blame for the recent rash of restaurant closings in downtown St. Louis?

Is Ballpark Village to blame for the recent rash of restaurant closings in downtown St. Louis? —Jeff P., Creve Coeur

In the wake of the closings of Joe Buck’s, Prime 1000, The Dubliner, and the announced closings of Mike Shannon’s Steaks and Seafood and Harry’s, everyone in town seems to be asking whether the downtown restaurant scene is doomed—and if Ballpark Village is the villain.

There’s so much more to it than that. Here are six considerations:

1) Several of the recent closures are large-footprint, high-visibility, storied restaurants. There are venues that welcomed tens of thousands of customers over the years and produced almost as many memories. In the restaurant arena, the old saying “the bigger they are, the harder they fall” rings especially true. So the passing of a Mike Shannon’s becomes front-page news while the closing of a smaller, lesser-known eatery is scarcely news at all. (And remember that Shannon’s is an expensive, fine dining restaurant, a niche that’s on the wane nationwide.)

2) Ballpark Village’s massive size alone necessitates some sort of impact. Think about it: The development’s three biggest venues measure 80,000 square feet, while most restaurants average 3,000. In other words, Ballpark Village is equivalent to having 25 average-sized restaurants under one roof—and that doesn’t even include the 5,600-square-foot Drunken Fish, the complex’s only locally owned major tenant. Obviously, restaurants affected the most by Ballpark Village would be nearby venues that compete for the same customer, such as Shannon’s, Buck’s, and Harry’s.

3) Trepidation plays a part. While Ballpark Village continues to get blamed for downtown’s restaurant woes, crime is a factor as well, but it’s part of a larger picture. Whenever there’s a violent event—the 9/11 attacks, protests following the shooting of Michael Brown, ongoing media coverage about crime in the city—one tendency is to withdraw. As a result, some diners in the suburbs hunker down closer to home. That’s why neighborhood restaurants tend to flourish no matter what the economic or sociological climate, while destination restaurants can suffer. One could argue how much of a role trepidation plays, but it does keep a percentage of diners from venturing out of their comfort zones.

4) Despite the negative factors, many downtown restaurants are thriving. Broadway Oyster Bar has recently expanded and just announced a sister restaurant upriver, Grafton Oyster Bar. Dave Bailey, who owns six restaurants, all of them downtown, is adding three venues to his empire this year: Shift Test Kitchen & Take Out (313 S.  Eleventh); Willow (321 N. Tenth), a 4,500 square-foot private event space; and an as-yet-unnamed barbecue joint at 1011 Olive. Syberg’s and BB’s Jazz, Blues and Soups appear to be holding their own while sales at Pi at the MX (610 Washington) and Robust (635 Washington) are reported to be strong. The Flying Saucer Draught Emporium touts a loyal following, cheaper beer prices, and a broader beer selection (80 taps from around the world) as the reasons for its continued success. Carmine’s Steak House (20 S. Fourth) is thisclose to unveiling a $300,000 makeover. (Owner Tony Lombardo claims that Ballpark Village has actually helped his business, that guests have dinner at one of his restaurants and go there later.) Jorge Calvo, owner of Mango Peruvian Cuisine (1001 Washington), does not regret his move into a much larger space. And then there’s The Wheelhouse (1000 Spruce), which became an instant and ongoing success despite signing a 10,000-square-foot lease well after the arrival of Ballpark Village. (Now known as the Consips restaurant group, it recently inked another downtown lease for a brand new concept.) The above restaurateurs have proven that survival often depends on pedal-to the-metal marketing and offering a different product or experience.

5) More than a dozen restaurants debuted downtown this year. These include critically acclaimed restaurants The Kitchen Sink, Medina Grill, Taze Mediterranean Street Food, and Yiro/Gyro. And there are some notable additions coming early this year, including Sugarfire Smoke House (605 Washington); the reopening of Missouri Bar & Grille (701 N. Tucker); and Gerard Craft’s Porano Pasta (634 Washington), opening January 26 and already making national news. (SLM’s recent Q&A with executive chef Michael Petres is here.)

6) Restaurants closings are cyclical, with many of them occurring close to the end of the calendar year. Last January, SLM announced that 13 restaurants had closed in a week’s time (not all of them downtown), which to our knowledge was unprecedented. Yet the restaurant sky did not fall. In fact, according to our calculations, there were fewer closures in 2015 than in 2014.

So what’s in the crystal ball this year? Here’s what Dave Bailey had to say: “I expect a good year. If we can see an increase in convention business, it will be even better—and we know the Cardinals and Blues aren’t going anywhere. We don’t need billionaires; we need more scrappy, smart, energetic people who love this town like I do.”

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