Ask George: Should St. Louis expect more restaurant closures this January than last year?

This is a follow-up to last week’s question, asking whether there were more openings and closings in 2025 than 2024. (In short, there were fewer closings and more openings.)

With a new year, diners’ focus has shifted to the present. For the record, the number of January openings and closures in 2024 and 2025 were nearly identical.

It’s still early to make firm predictions about January 2026, but the industry sentiment is undeniably cautious. Peter Saleh, managing director and restaurant analyst at financial services firm BTIG, recently told QSR Magazine that the industry is likely heading into a “humbling year.” He noted that restaurant sentiment has been this pessimistic only twice in the past two decades: during the 2008 financial crisis and at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Much of that concern stems from customers pulling back as menu prices rise to offset higher operating costs. A newer pressure point is insurance, with some restaurants seeing premiums jump as much as 50 percent in 2025. Still, Saleh strikes a cautiously optimistic note, saying customer attitude could “turn on a dime” if sales improve even for a month or two.

Locally, the warning signs are already visible. There have been 11 St. Louis restaurants have announced January closures so far, including three Hi-Pointe Drive-In locations, the Kirkwood location of Session Taco, and Robust, a nearly 20-year-old Webster Groves institution. With only 11 total closures in January 2025, the metro area is now on pace to well exceed that number.

On a positive note, ever since 2008—when we began tracking local openings, closings, and coming soons—openings have outpaced closings almost every month. The most recent list, published yesterday, indicates that 19 restaurants are currently slated to open this month so far, surpassing a total of 15 in January 2025.

The message remains the same: Show up for local restaurants, particularly independent operators, whose futures rise and fall with community support.

Follow dining editor George Mahe on Twitter and Instagram, or send him an “Ask George” email at [email protected]. For more from St. Louis Magazine, subscribe or follow us on Facebook,  Twitter, and Instagram.