Are all of the recent restaurant closures a harbinger of what’s to come? —Oliver S., St. Louis
This question is a logical follow-up to last week’s query, in which we discussed the abnormal number of restaurants up for sale. We noted what prospective buyers should do if interested but did not address whether the number of closures was unusual.
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Every time there’s an uptick in closures—especially long-running places or notable ones—this question understandably comes up. But let’s look at the numbers.
By our estimation, in June 2024, there were nine closures and 29 openings; in July, there were six closures and 15 openings. Last year at this time, June experienced six closures vs. 22 openings, and July had three closures and 14 openings—roughly the same percentages as this year.
In St. Louis, independent restaurant openings have far outpaced closings in every month for as long as we’ve been reporting them, an exercise we began in 2008. Back then, the thought was that we’d be wise to chronicle all of the recession-induced closings, which we feared would be a large number. That never happened.
Since we’ve been keeping track, restaurants across the metro area have been opening at a respectable clip, and closings have been minimal. There have been about three restaurant openings for every closing—a ratio we’ve always found fascinating. (There was a blip early in the pandemic, but the numbers recovered as soon as restaurants fully reopened.)
What the future holds is anyone’s guess. Some have argued that a relatively stagnant metro population can’t support the existing number of restaurants (let alone a larger number of restaurants). And given ongoing inflation and high labor rates, a serious decrease in restaurant numbers would only make the remaining restaurants more robust and viable.
For as long as I can remember, the blind positivity of restaurant owners has overcome economic and natural disasters, as well as the sky-is-falling mantra of naysayers, a phenomenon that I hope—and expect—to continue.
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