Photography courtesy of Wikimedia Commons, pdsphil
Busch Stadium
Last July, I predicted that the Cardinals would win the World Series. They came darn close, vanquishing the Pirates and Dodgers to reach the Fall Classic before succumbing to the Red Sox. Now, I'm giving it a second try.
The Cardinals have done quite a bit of winning this century. Since 2000, they’ve made the playoffs 10 times, been to the NLCS eight times, played in four World Series, and won two championships. They’ve done it all without the advantage of an exorbitant payroll like the Yankees or Dodgers.
At this point, the rest of the country is getting a little sick of hearing about how great the Cardinals are. To be sure, it doesn’t help that Cardinals fans claim to be both humble and the BEST FANS IN BASEBALL. The Wall Street Journal recently named the Cardinals the most hateable team in the postseason, based on scientific factors like recent success, steroid suspensions, traveling fans, and “excessive beards.” (Mayor Francis Slay penned a snarky response.) In a separate inquiry, The New York Times agreed that the Cardinals are least deserving of winning the World Series.
Just think what people will say after the Redbirds win it all again this year. Here are six reasons they just might be able to pull it off.
1. Adam Wainwright. When making this list last year, I put Wainwright right at the top, and there’s no reason not to have him there again. If anything, the Cardinals’ ace had an even better year in 2014. He dropped his ERA from 2.94 to 2.38, the best mark of his career. He won 20 games for the second time and pitched a career-high three shutouts. His strikeouts were down a tick, but that’s nitpicking. The point is, Wainwright is among the best pitchers on the planet. Beating the Cardinals in a five- or seven-game postseason series, if it goes the distance, requires opponents to face him multiple times, no easy task.
2. Resiliency. It probably says something about how spoiled Cardinals fans are that, up until September, many viewed this year's squad as a disappointment. Sure, for the first few months of the season, St. Louis was hanging around the .500 mark. In late June, the Brewers led the Cardinals by 6 1/2 games. Still, compared to the Red Sox, who completely fell apart after winning the World Series, the Cards were never worse than middle-of-the-pack, despite their early offensive struggles. But the team came on strong down the stretch—what sportswriters might call “overcoming adversity”—and finished with a respectable 90 wins. That’s the same number they had in 2011 and seven more than they won in 2006. Just saying.
3. The New and Improved Lance Lynn. Probably the Cardinals’ most-criticized starting pitcher over the past few years, Lynn developed a habit of getting off to quick starts before falling back to Earth, painfully, late in the season. He’s had his share of playoff disappointments, too. But this year, the 27-year-old was solid from start to finish, filling in for the injured Michael Wacha as the No. 2 starter behind Wainwright. Lynn's 2.74 ERA was the best of his career by far. If anything, he got better as the year went on, a good omen for October.
4. The underrated Matt Holliday. Talking about whether players are overrated or underrated is one of the more fun—and more idiotic—things that fans and sportswriters do. What does being overrated even mean? Who is doing all of this rating? And more importantly, who cares? So please forgive me for what I’m about to say, but so many fans think that Holliday is overrated, he’s actually underrated. People say that he gets paid too much, that he chokes in the playoffs, that he gets his hits when the game isn’t on the line. Frankly, that’s garbage. Sure, Holliday is getting older, and his numbers were down this year, but he still hit at least 20 home runs for the ninth straight year, and his .811 OPS, while the lowest of his career, was still the highest on the team.
5. The quietly great Jhonny Peralta. This is just one perspective, but it seems to me that Cardinals fans have been a little slow to embrace Peralta, perhaps because of his previous ties to performance-enhancing drugs, a big no-no in the minds of many baseball boosters. But look at it this way: In 2013, the team’s primary shortstop was Pete Kozma, who was among the worst hitters in the National League. His .217 batting average was bad, and his .548 OPS was worse. This year, Peralta hit .263 with a .779 OPS. That’s a major upgrade. And with the Cardinals struggling mightily to hit home runs, getting a team-leading 21 from the shortstop was a major boon. If you’re into fancier stats, Peralta led Cardinals hitters with 5.8 WAR.
6. The resurgent Jon Jay. Last year, Jay was mediocre at the plate and slightly worse than mediocre in center field. So the Cardinals traded World Series hero David Freese to the Angels for center fielder Peter Bourjos. But Bourjos didn’t hit, and Jay quickly reclaimed the job. Lately, the pair have even been playing together some, with Jay in right field. For the season, his counting stats won’t blow you away (3 homers, 52 runs, 46 runs batted in), but given the team's offensive impotence, his .372 on-base percentage was a big plus, second only to Matt Carpenter among lineup regulars.
