In this space last June, I predicted the Cardinals would win the World Series. The team came within a couple of disastrous games in Boston of proving me right. Hey, ending the season as National League champs ain’t half bad. Now, I’m making another prediction: In 2014, the Blues will end the franchise's 45-year run of disappointment by finally winning its first Stanley Cup.
When I lauded the Cardinals, my argument was based on the brilliance of individual players: the veteran moxie of Carlos Beltran, the comeback of Adam Wainwright, the leadership and defense of Yadier Molina. But this Blues team, as trite and banal as it sounds, isn’t about individuals. It’s a team in the truest sense of the word, a group of people working together to reach a common goal, the whole greater than the sum of its parts.
Cliché? Yes. Accurate? Also yes.
So without further ado, here are five reasons that the Blues will win the Stanley Cup (plus one reason they might not):
1. It’s our turn. Look, loyal Blues fans have been waiting for a Stanley Cup for decades. Sooner or later, it has to happen, right? Why not now? This isn’t like the Cubs or Browns, downtrodden teams that perennially finish in last place. The Blues almost always make the playoffs. They’ve come this close so often. This is their time. It’s not scientific, but I’ve just got a good feeling. (Which you might say is the opposite of how Blues fans usually feel.)
2. Depth. The Blues don’t have a single player among the NHL’s top 30 in points. Only Alex Steen ranks in the league’s top 25 goal scorers. And only Alex Pietrangelo and T.J. Oshie are among the top 40 in assists. But the Blues have scored 196 goals, tied for second-most in the NHL. Their +61 goal differential is the best in the league. How has a team without any superstars (with all due respect to Pietrangelo and David Backes) pulled that off? Depth. The Blues boast an impressive nine players who have each contributed at least 30 points this season, plus a glut of quality defensemen. Whenever the team has run into trouble—injuries, the flu, etc.—they’ve been able to fall back on that depth. Every team will tell you that it has a next-man-up attitude when somebody goes down, but few teams have as many talented next men as the Blues.
3. Versatility. In a recent interview with Backes (check SLM's April issue for more from the conversation), I asked the Blues captain about his ability to contribute to the team in multiple areas. “I pride myself on helping the team win,” he said. “If that is a goal needing to be scored, if the right play is to dish the puck for someone else to score, or if it’s shutting down the other team’s best player on a given night, I’m willing to do that.” It’s an attitude that has rubbed off on his teammates. Perfect example: Oshie. He plays minutes on the power play, on the penalty-kill unit, and has been known to switch lines when the coaching staff wants to mix things up. With so many Swiss army-knife players, the Blues are well-equipped to adjust to whatever situation presents itself, a key trait in hockey’s crapshoot playoffs.
4. Games in Hand. As you probably know, the Blues returned from the Olympic break tied with the Chicago Blackhawks for first place in the Central Division, at 84 points. Both of those teams are looking up at Anaheim (87 points) in the Western Conference. That would seem to position the Blues as contenders, though probably not favorites. But because of quirks in the schedule, the Blues have actually played just 57 games, the fewest in the conference and three fewer than Chicago or Anaheim. Give the Blues those extra games, and they might be in first place. The team’s .737 points percentage is the best in the league, and the Blue Note is on pace for a franchise-record 120 points.
5. Olympic Experience. Sure, the Olympics ended on a sour note for the United States, with an embarrassing 5–0 loss to Finland in the bronze-medal game, following a heartbreaking 1–0 loss to Canada in the semifinals. Even so, the Blues represented themselves well on the international stage. St. Louis defensemen Jay Bouwmeester and Pietrangelo were key to Canada’s stifling defense, which powered the team to gold. The silver-medal-winning Swedish team received important contributions from Blues Patrik Berglund and Steen. And you already know about Oshie’s heroics in the shootout against Russia, but Backes was also one of the USA’s best players, contributing three goals and an assist (and saving stray dogs along the way). There might be a fatigue factor for some of those guys, but the high-level international experience should come in handy come playoff time.
6. Leadership From the Top. As new Blues owner Tom Stillman told us in a recent interview, he has two goals. First, turn the franchise into a viable business—and also first, win the Stanley Cup. The latter would certainly help with the former. He’s shown a willingness to spend money on the team, upping the payroll and giving contract extensions to key players. General manager Doug Armstrong and coach Ken Hitchcock are among the industry’s best. They each contributed to Team Canada’s gold medal. And Hitchcock has won the Stanley Cup before, in Dallas. These guys know how to put together a champion.
So with all of those causes for hope, what should we fear?
Goaltending. Many in the media have tried to assuage fans’ paranoia about the team’s goalies. But to me, it’s this simple: Elite goaltenders can dominate in the postseason, and the Blues have good—but not great—goaltenders. Halak’s goals against average of 2.26 ranks 11th in the NHL. Brian Elliott’s 2.13 GAA is sixth. But those numbers don’t tell the whole story: Because the Blues play such good defense, their goaltenders don’t face as many shots. If you look at save percentage, Elliott is tied for 20th, while Halak ranks 23rd. In a tight playoff series, that leaves the Blues susceptible to losing a decisive game on a cheap goal.
Given the team’s history, I’m not sure Blues fans could handle that.
