Scott Rovak
The hottest topic in Cardinal Nation this morning is Yadier Molina's (arguably unjust) ejection from yesterday's game against the Giants. He was thrown out after being called out on a close play at first base in the third inning, when he chucked his helmet in frustration. Molina said he was mad at himself for not running harder down the line. The umpire thought the Cardinals catcher was protesting the call, so he ejected him. That decision led to strong disagreement from Molina and manager Mike Matheny, who is likely to draw a fine for criticizing the umpires after the game. The Giants won 4-2.
But as fun as it can be to play judge and jury in these situations, ruling on whether the player or the umpire was in the wrong (umpire, in this instance), I want to talk about something else this morning. I'd like to make a prediction: The Cardinals will win the World Series.
I decided this on Saturday, when the Redbirds played a doubleheader against the Giants. In the first game, St. Louis won 8-0. I had tickets for the nightcap. Because I'm not much of a fan (didn't grow up here, want to maintain a modicum of journalistic objectivity, etc.), I usually just hope for a close game, some drama in the ninth. And this seemed like a game that could be compelling. The Giants are the defending World Series champions. They beat the Cardinals in the NLCS last year. The pitching matchup pitted Madison Bumgarner, a talented young lefty, against Cards ace Adam Wainwright.
But it was clear, right from the start, that the Giants had no chance. Wainwright threw a complete game, struck out 10, allowed just one run, didn't walk anybody. On offense, the Cardinals lineup smacked single after double after single, steady and deadly. They piled up seven runs on nine hits, scoring multiple runs in three separate innings, despite several regulars sitting out one half of the doubleheader or the other. Add that 7-1 drubbing to the 8-0 shutout earlier in the afternoon, and the Cardinals outscored the Giants 15-1 on the day. An absolute trouncing.
What makes this Cardinals team so good? Well, the simplest answer is also the most obvious. The Cardinals are great at scoring runs (third most in the National League) and even better at preventing the other team from scoring runs (allowing the fewest in the majors). It's no surprise, then, that the Cardinals are 37-19, the best record in baseball—I'm not exactly going out on a limb picking them to win it all. Here are six more specific reasons that St. Louis just might be hosting a World Series victory parade this autumn:
1. Adam Wainwright. With Chris Carpenter sidelined entering this season, it was clear his run as the leader of the pitching staff had come to a close. The Cards needed a new No. 1. Enter Adam. Wainwright missed all of the 2011 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and was just so-so in 2012. But this year, he's been better than ever. Wainwright is 8-3, with a 2.33 ERA, 84 strikeouts and just six walks. Six! If he maintains his current 14-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio (an unlikely proposition), it would be by far the best in history. Perhaps he's using black magic?
2. Rookie pitchers. Injuries to Carpenter, Jake Westbrook (back soon), and Jaime Garcia (out of the year) have forced the Cards to rely on inexperienced arms, but the young hurlers have shown why the Cardinals' farm system is widely considered the best in baseball. Shelby Miller, our early favorite for Rookie of the Year (and also the owner of an excellent Twitter account), has nearly matched Wainwright. In 11 starts, he's 6-3 with a 1.82 ERA and a minuscule 0.98 WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched). In five starts filling in for Westbrook and Garcia, rookies John Gast and Tyler Lyons are 4-1. Then Gast got hurt, too, leading the Cardinals to call up their top pitching prospect, Michael Wacha. Yes, the Cardinals are replacing rookies with rookies, and still haven't missed a beat. And I'd be remiss not to mention strong bullpen contributions from Trevor Rosenthal (2.08 ERA) and Seth Maness ( also 2.08 ERA).
3. Wacha. It's hard to argue that Michael Wacha has been a key to the team's success, given that he's made just one start so far. He went seven strong innings last Thursday, allowing just one run, before Mitchell Boggs blew it in the ninth yet again, costing Wacha his first win. But there's no denying the hype surrounding this precocious future ace. As any fan can tell you, Wacha is a lock to win Rookie of the Year (sorry, Shelby) as well as the Cy Young Award and MVP. Then he's going to cure cancer and broker peace in the Middle East.
4. Molina's offensive development. Yadier Molina's nearly flawless defense behind the plate has earned him five straight Gold Glove Awards. Over the course of his career, he's thrown out nearly half of the few runners dumb enough to attempt to steal against him. And his encyclopedic knowledge of opposing hitters, which he uses when calling pitches, is at least partially responsible for the pitching staff's success. Over the past three seasons, his offense has started to catch up to his defense. This year, he's hitting .347 (second in the National League) with a .387 on-base percentage (ninth). He finished fourth in MVP voting a year ago, and he's certainly a candidate again (though we all know Wacha will win the award).
5. The ageless Carlos Beltran. Most 36-year-old hitters are declining, injured, or both. But Beltran has experienced a career resurgence since coming to St. Louis before last season, replacing Albert Pujols in the middle of the order. In 2012, he played in 151 games, his most since 2008, and smacked 32 homers. This year, he's at it again, with 12 home runs and 34 RBI through 51 games. In my humble opinion, Beltran, with his mix of power and speed, was one of the most underrated players in the decade of the 2000s. Now, he's making a case as the most gracefully aging star of the 2010s.
6. The banishment of Mitchell Boggs. Earlier this year, when reliever Mitchell Boggs was handing away game after game, I pleaded with the Cardinals to dump him. They obliged, sending him to the minors. At AAA, he continued to pitch poorly, but they called him back up anyway, for reasons unknown. Not surprisingly, upon his return to the big leagues, he promptly resumed botching games, including Wacha's debut. So now, the wise folks in the Cardinals front office have sent him down again. Hopefully AAA is where he'll stay.
So there you have it. Six (mostly serious) reasons the St. Louis Cardinals will be champions in 2013. Next week, I'll bring you six reasons I might be wrong.
