For about 25 innings or so, it seemed like the Cardinals were on track to have a perfect weekend.
On Friday night, after a touching pregame tribute to Stan Musial—seven simultaneous ceremonial first pitches from The Man's grandkids, the unveiling of a new plaque on Stan's statue recounting his many feats, and a WWII bomber buzzing the stadium in honor of Musial's service in the Navy during WWII—the Cardinals and Shelby Miller bested the Brewers and Kyle Lohse in his return to St. Louis, sending fans home happy with both their souvenir Stan Musial harmonicas and a 2-0 victory.
On Saturday, Adam Wainwright pitched a shutout, and the Cardinals scored seven runs in the sixth inning, giving them an easy 8-0 win. And yesterday, through seven innings, the Redbirds led 3-0. Their pitching staff had not relinquished a run in 39 innings, dating all the way back to the Cincinnati series.
From there, things ended badly. In the eighth, Trevor Rosenthal coughed up a two-run homer to Ryan Braun. In the ninth, Mitchell Boggs couldn't protect the one-run lead, recording his second blown save while failing to record a single out. Randy Choate and Edward Mujica were able to escape the inning with the tie score intact, thanks to some very questionable decisions from the Brewers. But Jonathan Lucroy homered off Fernando Salas in the top of the 10th, and Milwaukee narrowly avoided the sweep.
Still, through the first dozen games of the season, the Cardinals have performed well enough that I feel confident making the (utterly meaningless and premature) prediction that they will finish in first place in the National League Central, ahead of the preseason favorite Cincinnati Reds. Sure, 12 games represent a small sample, providing far too little data to draw any conclusions. But even with the team at 7-5, my gut tells me this is a winner. Here are two simple reasons:
Lineup Depth
Injuries are always unpredictable. But before the season, it seemed like the Cards' offense was especially vulnerable to aches and pains. When I offered David Freese to a friend in a fantasy-baseball trade, he declined, referring to the third baseman as "made of glass." Carlos Beltran is about to turn 36, and I worried that he might begin to show his age. But early in the season, the Cardinals have shown so much versatility and depth, the team seems capable of withstanding an injury or even two. Matt Carpenter is poised for a break-out sophomore campaign, leading the league in runs and doubles (again, note the small-sample-size caveat) while moving between second and third. Matt Adams (can we get the nickname Fat Adams going?) has provided pop off the bench, with three homers in just 18 at-bats. Add those guys to the usual suspects of Jay, Holliday, Craig, and Molina, and you've got a lineup right up there with any in baseball.
Starting Pitching
In his second season back from Tommy John, Adam Wainwright is ready to regain his status as staff ace, officially taking the baton from Chris Carpenter. His shutout on Saturday, complete with 12 K's, should be only a preview of coming attractions. Likewise, Jaime Garcia is healthy and ready to return to his previous form after an injury-plagued 2012. Through three starts, his ERA is 1.86. Rookie Shelby Miller has give up just two runs through his first two starts. Then there's an in-shape Lance Lynn and an age-defying Jake Westbrook (who's yet to allow an earned run through two starts). Sure, the bullpen is a concern. Closer Jason Motte is likely headed toward Tommy John, and Boggs, his current replacement, has an unsightly ERA of 11.37. Fernando Salas (8.31) and Joe Kelly (9.82) aren't far behind. But while bullpens keep managers up at night and give fans something to gripe about on message boards, it's starting pitchers who account for most of a team's innings, and starting pitchers who carry a team into the playoffs. That's where the Cardinals are headed.
Commentary by William Powell
