Photography courtesy of St. Louis Cardinals
After the Cardinals' extra-innings blowout victory (a peculiar feat) over the Reds last night, it feels a little wrong to be writing something negative about the team. The Cardinals have the best record in baseball; they've scored the most runs in the National League while allowing the second fewest; and their run differential of +98 is the best in MLB. During yesterday's rubber match in Cincinnati, the Cards erased two two-run deficits before breaking out for seven runs in the 10th inning, powered by Matt Holliday's grand slam. Their lead over Cincinnati and Pittsburgh in the Central Division is up to four games.
But last week, when I predicted that the Cardinals would win the World Series (and gave six reasons to support my argument), I promised to return with a post explaining why I could be wrong. Here are four reasons (I couldn't come up with six) you might want to curb your enthusiasm, at least a little. The last one is the most important, if you'd like to skip ahead.
1. Regression to the mean. When players start a season on an outlandishly outstanding streak—previously unspectacular pitchers suddenly looking like Sandy Koufax, guys hitting 50 points above their career average—there's a good chance they'll come back to Earth in the second half of the year. We saw this in 2012 with Lance Lynn, for instance. That won't be true for every player: The best ones produce at a high level from start to finish. It's the guys we know aren't really this good whom you have to worry about. Given his advanced age and the unsustainable rate at which he's belting home runs, I'd expect Carlos Beltran to slow down a little. Rookie pitcher Shelby Miller seems destined for stardom, an ace for years to come, but his ERA is currently 1.91, which is too good to be true. After making a successful rehab start in Peoria yesterday, Jake Westbrook is ready to return to the rotation after missing more than a month with elbow inflammation. When he does get back out there, expect his 1.62 ERA to rise, ending up somewhere closer to his 4.24 career mark. (On the other hand, there are Cardinals—David Freese, Allen Craig—who seem poised to break out in the second half.)
2. Injuries. The Cardinals have already lost Rafael Furcal, Jason Motte, and Jaime Garcia for the season. Chris Carpenter hasn't pitched yet this year. Westbrook made just six starts before going on the disabled list. Freese has been slow to round into form after dealing with injuries in the spring. Because of their best-in-baseball farm system and the great depth of their roster—a testament to GM John Mozeliak's genius—the Cardinals are perhaps better equipped to withstand injuries than most teams. No question, the rookie pitchers who have filled in the rotation have performed admirably. But come October, you need the big names on the field, not in the trainer's room. Random injuries have the power to wreck teams, even ones destined for greatness, like the 2013 Cardinals.
3. Wacha. After pitching seven strong innings in his major league debut (two hits, one run, six strikeouts), much-ballyhooed rookie Michael Wacha was hammered in his second outing, lasting less than five innings while giving up six runs on 10 hits. He's pitched just 11 2/3 innings in his Major League career, so we have no idea how good he really is. But we can now say definitively that he is not, in fact, God. Or Batman.
4. Postseason Crapshoot. Because of its marathon length, baseball's regular season is perhaps better than the schedules in football or basketball or hockey at determining which teams are the best. The 162-game slog has a way of revealing flaws, exposing pretenders. Only the best teams can win consistently for six months while overcoming injuries and battling through slumps and bouncing back from tough losses. Long ago, the team with the best record in the National League played the team with the best record in the American League in the World Series. With only two teams in the playoffs, it was the regular season that mattered most. But over time, the postseason has slowly expanded. It's no surprise—American sports fans love playoffs, love elimination games, love do-or-die drama. Now, October is king.
In this era of wild cards and division series, the best teams over the course of the season often lose to the hottest teams at the end of the season. Here is how the teams with the best record in the National League have performed in the postseason during this millennium:
2012: Nationals (98 regular season wins) lost in division series to Cardinals (88 wins)
2011: Phillies (102 wins) lost in division series to Cardinals (90 wins)
2010: Phillies (97 wins) lost in NLCS to Giants (92 wins)
2009: Dodgers (95 wins) lost in NLCS to Phillies (93 wins)
2008: Cubs (97 wins) lost in division series to Dodgers (84 wins)
2007: Diamondbacks (90 wins) lost in NLCS to Rockies (89 wins)
2006: Mets (97 wins) lost in NLCS to Cardinals (83 wins)
2005: Cardinals (100 wins) lost in NLCS to Astros (89 wins)
2004: Cardinals (105 wins) lost in World Series to Red Sox (98 wins)
2003: Braves (101 wins) lost in division series to Cubs (88 wins)
2002: Braves (101 wins) lost in division series to Giants (95 wins)
2001: Astros (93 wins) lost in division series to Braves (88 wins)
2000: Giants (97 wins) lost in division sereis to Mets (94 wins)
You get the idea. Over the past 13 years, the teams with the best record in the National League have won the World Series zero times. They've only played in one World Series, and they've lost in the first round seven times, more than half. Would you believe that the last time a team finished with the best record in the National League and won the World Series was the Atlanta Braves, during the strike-shortened 1995 season? That's nearly 20 years ago.
Cardinals fans should know, after their team's Cinderella runs in 2006 and 2011, that upsets can happen in October. But will the Redbirds be as comfortable in the role of Goliath as they have been playing David? If they continue their romp through the regular season, we'll find out this fall.
