Big news: The Cardinals have signed ace Adam Wainwright, who was set to become a free agent after the 2013 season, to a five-year extension worth $97.5 million.
It's the most lucrative deal the franchise has ever given a pitcher, and will keep Wainwright in St. Louis through the 2018 season. He joins Yadier Molina and Allen Craig on the list of Cardinals who have received long-term extensions over the past couple of years. With Chris Carpenter likely finished, Wainwright is now firmly entrenched as the team's No.1 starter.
Will Wainwright live up to the contract? From the perspective of a fan, grateful for his years of admirable service, the easy answer is "Of course!" But it's important to remember that you give a player an extension not as a reward for his past feats, but in exchange for his future performance.
Signing a player in his thirties to a long-term extension is always a gamble. (See here the bloated contracts handed out to aging stars like Alex Rodriguez and Ryan Howard, players who are owed massive salaries for years to come despite declining output.) That's especially true for pitchers, especially pitchers with a history of injury. After finishing third and then second in the Cy Young balloting in 2009 and 2010, Wainwright missed the entire 2011 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. When he returned last year, his ERA jumped from the middle twos to nearly four. But many of his peripheral stats—home run rate, walk rate, strikeout rate—were just as good as ever, indicating that he'll likely return to form in 2013.
That's another important thing to remember: You can't really evaluate the extension based on this coming year, because Wainwright would have been a Cardinal in 2013 regardless. His new contract begins in 2014, so that's when we'll begin to see whether the deal is money well spent.
Wainwright has only four full years as a Major League starter under his belt, so it's possible that injuries and age will make him seem overpaid by 2018. Then again, many aces (Chris Carpenter, for one, though he obviously had his own injury issues) have performed at an all-star level into their mid- or even upper-thirties. Only time will tell.
In the meantime, Cardinals fans should rest assured that they won't have to sweat out a free agency bidding war for Wainwright, who would have been arguably the best pitcher on the market this off-season. Worry about the extension later. For now, the fact that David Freese will begin the season on the disabled list is a more pressing concern.
