Early indications are that the state of Missouri is essentially off the political radar in President Barack Obama’s reelection strategy.
Roll Call newspaper—the recognized authority on such matters inside the Beltway—is reporting today that Democrats will likely take a “far less aggressive path than what he forged in 2008,” meaning more focus on targeting winnable swing states, especially those with sizable Hispanic populations.
Missouri, with just a 3.4 percent Hispanic population—less than a quarter of the national 15.8 percentage—is hardly a factor in that equation. Just as important, Missouri was on the 22 red states in 2008, and even though Obama barely lost it (by less than 1/7 of a percentage point), it certainly will have less priority to the Democrats than the 28 states he won. (That's not to mention the fact that the state recently lost an electoral vote.)
“Missouri is likely to come off the 2012 battleground map, given that it has only trended more conservative since Obama narrowly lost it in 2008 and Sen. Claire McCaskill will be facing a tough re-election battle and strengthened Show-Me State GOP base,” Roll Call reported.
It will be interesting to see how much help the Obama campaign will provide not only for McCaskill, but for Rep. Russ Carnahan, who said this week that he's "taking a serious look" at running for Congress in the new 2nd District (being vacated by Rep. Todd Akin, who in turn has entered the Republican primary to oppose McCaskill).
McCaskill has been among Obama’s most notably public supporters, and Carnahan has been loyal as well. With a ferocious battle expected over control of both houses of Congress, one might expect Obama would have a strong interest in their reelection efforts.
But there’s always the question of whether Missouri Democrats—ever running further to the right—even want the president’s help. And with 2012 shaping up as the year of the Hispanic voter, it may not matter anyway.
SLM co-owner Ray Hartmann is a panelist on KETC Channel 9’s Donnybrook, which airs Thursdays at 7 p.m.
Correction: This story has been updated to reflect Rep. Russ Carnahan's current status regarding the 2nd District election.
Commentary By Ray Hartmann
