Illustration by Luke Bott
In looking toward this November’s hotly contested races, we turned to University of Missouri–St. Louis political science professor Dave Robertson. In mid-August, he assessed statewide candidates’ strengths and weaknesses—and told us who had a slight edge.
U.S. Senator
Rep. Todd Akin (R)
Strength: “Parts of the social-conservative coalition seem to be rallying to defend Akin.”
Weakness: Akin’s comments about rape and abortion set off a firestorm. “This is an interesting test of whether social conservatives…and Republican Party leaders can hold their coalition together.”
Sen. Claire McCaskill (D)
Strength: “I can’t imagine her campaign is anything but happy that the conversation is on the restriction of abortion for rape and incest victims.”
Weakness: Her approval ratings aren’t as high as those of other Democratic Senate candidates, says Robertson.
Advantage: McCaskill, with 2–1 odds. “But Akin could still win if he is able to change the conversation back to the economy, taxes, and the deficit.”
Lieutenant Governor
Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder (R)
Strength: Moderate appeal. “Kinder has not been seen as the kind of conservative that Todd Akin or Ed Martin is.”
Weaknesses: Last year, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported that Kinder charged taxpayers for more than 320 hotel stays. He also narrowly won the primary.
Susan Montee (D)
Strength: As state auditor, Montee investigated nursing homes and the Department of Health and Senior Services—experience that could be useful to the state’s official senior advocate.
Weakness: Montee has “held a statewide office and is known across the state, but probably not as well as Kinder.”
Advantage: Kinder. “He’s a well-known Republican office-holder, and he has good fundraising abilities.”
Attorney General
Ed Martin (R)
Strength: Heavy hitters like Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former Gov. Matt Blunt back him, and he has “a lot of support among Tea Party people.”
Weakness: “Martin is vulnerable to being painted as too conservative and out of the mainstream of Missouri. He’s quite a feisty conservative.”
Chris Koster (D)
Strength: As attorney general Koster can “serve people who have been wronged,” which helps with popularity.
Weakness: Koster’s opponent has attacked him for not fighting the Affordable Care Act (though he did file a brief opposing the insurance mandate).
Advantage: Koster. “Incumbents usually have an advantage, and Martin had to win the primary” (read: spend money).
