Getting a ticket to rounds two and three of the NCAA Tournament in St. Louis was going to be tough, regardless of which teams were assigned to play in the Scottrade Center on Friday and Sunday. But when the NCAA Tournament Committee announced its 2014 bracket, St. Louis became the hot spot.
Along with 34–0 Wichita State University, the Midwest Region’s top seed, St. Louis will host the two oldest traditional powers in college basketball: Kentucky and Kansas. Kentucky is the eighth seed in the Midwest, while the Jayhawks are the second seed in the East Region. The venue will have a definite Kansas vibe, considering Kansas State was also invited to the St. Louis party.
The NCAA adopted the “pod” system 12 years ago, in an effort to keep more teams close to their respective home campuses. This worked out well for KU, which is scuffling this season without dynamic freshman center Joel Embiid. In fact, most pundits are picking Kansas to leave St. Louis with a season-ending loss. We'll get to that in a moment, but let’s start with the nation’s lone undefeated team.
Can Wichita State go 40–0 and be crowned 2014 NCAA champions a month from now? If you saw the Shockers 10 days ago, during the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament at Scottrade Center, you would say "yes." Wichita State dominated the tournament, always seeming a half-step quicker and a few inches taller than its opponents. The nation's No. 2 team ran its record to 34–0 with an 83–69 victory over Indiana State University in the MVC title game, a contest that virtually guaranteed a return trip to St. Louis.
But let’s get back to that 40–0 question. Yes, the Shockers can win it all and go undefeated, but the tournament selection committee put a major potential stumbling block in the Shockers’ way with Kentucky. The Wildcats began the year as the preseason No. 1 and quickly fell from that perch. Coach John Calipari’s team didn’t stop sliding until it was completely out of the Top 25. But this traditional power got its act together late in the season and lost by a single point to top-seeded Florida in the SEC's championship game.
Should Kentucky top the Kansas State Wildcats and the Shockers beat the winner of Wednesday’s play-in game in Dayton, between Cal Poly and Texas Southern, this one-versus-eight seed matchup will be one of the tournament’s most watched games.
My prediction? Look for Kentucky to beat Wichita State.
While Wichita State coach Gregg Marshall’s team advanced to the Final Four in 2013, it will again have to deal with a 10- or 11-day gap between its MVC victory and the first game of the NCAA Tournament. No team has gone undefeated and won the title since the 1976 Indiana Hoosiers; WSU is the first team to enter the tournament undefeated since the 1991 UNLV Rebels. This team is under pressure.
Still, the team has a vocal fan following, as well as some intimidating quirks. If you fold down your ring finger and extend the other digits of your hand, you get a “W”; it might look like a gang sign to some, but people of all ages were throwing them all over St. Louis just more than a week ago. The Shocker pep band leads a tribal call at least twice a game that goes, “You don’t want to go to war/With the Shockers. Don’t start no stuff/Won’t be no stuff.” Wichita’s creed is “Play Angry,” and Marshall extols his team to do just that during its pregame video. He’s into it, the fans are into it, and, most importantly, the team is into it.
Can the Shockers go 40–0? It's possible, but I'm guessing the team won’t because of Kentucky.
Don't accuse me of hating on WSU because I attended KU. Think what you might; I’m just callin’ them the way I see 'em. I don’t let allegiance get in the way of NCAA bracket predictions, which helped me win two NCAA Tournament pools last year. (Speaking of those popular pools, according to Jack Jones of betfirm.com, “NCAA tournament brackets pools alone see Americans risk around $3 billion annually... That doesn’t even count the numerous contests put on by businesses that do not require an entry fee, but will pay out prizes to winners in hopes of getting people to their stores.”)
Speaking of my alma mater, KU handily defeated New Mexico earlier this year, but that was with Embiid in the lineup. He's currently nursing an injured back and not expected play until the Sweet 16, if Kansas advances. As a result, I spent Sunday night listening to expert after expert predict that KU is going down in this rematch. Here’s why that won’t happen—and it has nothing to do with KU. Stanford is going to upset New Mexico in the second round. KU will struggle at times against Eastern Kentucky, but the team will prevail. The Cardinals will give the Jayhawks all they can handle on Sunday, but KU will move on to Memphis for the South Region semifinal.
Here's my prediction for the teams that will meet in AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas on April 5, during the Final Four: Florida, Memphis, Arizona, and Louisville. Florida will play Arizona for the national championship, and the Gators will take home the title.
The biggest winner in the tournament, though, could be St. Louis. With the huge fans bases of KU and Kentucky here—plus the rabid followers of Wichita State—downtown will be packed during four days of basketball fun and financial windfall. Add K-State fans, and you have something special for St. Loius.
Speaking of St. Louis, Saint Louis University got a surprisingly low five seed in the Midwest Regional, but the team must travel to Orlando to take on the winner of the Iowa-versus-Tennessee play-in game. That will be a tough assignment for coach Jim Crews’ squad. I pick the Billikens to win that game—and then lose to the defending national champion Louisville Cardinals in the third-round contest.
Meanwhile, Mizzou fans must settle for the NIT Tournament. The Tigers plays their first game at home on Wednesday against Davidson.
Commentary by Alvin Reid
