Dear Mike Matheny,
From reading the "Matheny Manifesto," your treatise on fixing youth sports, I know you're a no-nonsense, straight-talking guy, so let's cut right to the point: Mitchell Boggs needs to go away. Now.
I know you've only been a major-league manager for a little more than a year, but by this point, you've probably noticed that bullpen management tends to be a big source of frustration for fans. No matter what you do, people are going to hurl insults at you whenever the Cards cough up a lead in the late innings. This happens to every manager of every team. But Mike, you're not doing yourself any favors with this irrational devotion to Boggs. If you keep putting that guy out there, people are going to start accusing you of throwing games.
Now, I know what you're thinking. Chapter One of Managing for Dummies is titled "Don't Overreact in April." Good or bad, early season results should be taken with many grains of salt. Baseball, as the constant cliche goes, is a marathon, not a sprint.
The stats wonks (like me) tend to agree with that logic. This early in the season, we're working with sample sizes that are too small for any conclusions. Sure, after getting shelled last night for four runs in 1/3 of an inning to give away a game in Philadelphia, Boggs' ERA has risen to a ridiculous 12.46. But that's bound to come back down to Earth, right? Just look at Matt Adams. He's hitting .542. Chances are he won't keep that up all season, either. Regression to the mean and all that.
I understand your logic. Boggs has only pitched 8 2/3 innings. Of the 13 runs he's surrendered, 11 have come in just two outings—last night (when he gave up 4) and April 8 against Cincinnati (when he surrendered 7 and Mike Shannon started talking about the Hoover Dam). But let's look at it this way: You've brought Boggs into six games with either a tie score or in a save situation. In those six games, he's got two blown saves and two losses. Your record is 2-4. Or think about this: In less than nine innings, Boggs has managed to give up more runs than anyone else on the team. Adam Wainwright has pitched 20 more innings and given up four fewer runs.
In many ways, I admire the loyalty that you show to your players. Whenever a reliever has a bad game, you usually like to send him right back out there. You don't give him too much time to sulk. After last night's game, you said, in reference to Boggs, that you planned to "keep pitching him," and went on to say, "You have to have confidence and right now he’s a very confident guy, but he’s had some tough circumstances. He hasn’t had the start he wants or needs to have. That’s a tough hurdle to get over. He is going to get over it. I think he’s going to get over it real soon. And we need him to get over it real soon and start being the guy who can dominate a late inning for us."
What's that quote about the definition of insanity? Look, Boggs might have all the confidence in the world, but right now, opposing hitters are spraying his confident deliveries all over the field. He's getting shelled out there, Mike.
Meanwhile, Joe Kelly—maybe you've heard of him—has pitched only once since April 7. He's young and talented. Maybe it's time you showed some loyalty by giving him a few of those innings that Boggs has been blowing. Not to be cruel, but anyone not named Boggs would be an improvement right now, just by default.
Why not relegate Boggs to mop-up duty for a few weeks? Let him figure out his mechanics and regain his composure in low-pressure situations. How about this: Boggs is only allowed to pitch when you guys are winning by more runs than his ERA. As his ERA comes down, if it does, you can slowly work him back into closer and closer games.
Then again, given his current ERA, you'll have to get up by 13 runs to ever use him again.... Yeah, I think I'm OK with that.
Sincerely, Your Friend Bill
Commentary by William Powell
